Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Seven reasons not to bomb Iran

Iran’s Mig-29 fighter jets
An American defense analyst has outlined several reasons why the US administration should not become involved in military confrontation with Iran.

Adam Lowther, a member of the faculty at the US Air Force's Air University, called on US politicians to consider options before deciding on a military attack against Iran. 

1. Iran possesses what is likely the most capable military the US has faced in decades. 

Lowther explained that Iran is not like Grenada, Panama, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Serbia, Afghanistan or Iraq that the US invaded, adding that in all of these examples, the US military defeated an adversary incapable of competing with the US. 

He also noted that the Iranian military is far more competent and capable and after watching the war in Iraq for a decade has a good understanding of US tactics and strategy. 

The analyst said Iran's Navy is skilled in littoral combat and may be capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz for sufficient duration to wreak economic havoc. The recent naval exercises by the Iranian navy illustrate a clear strategy that would seek to close the strait while attempting to sink American combat vessels that enter the area. This would result in a significant loss of commercial shipping and cause the price of oil to skyrocket. 

2. Unlike Iraq, Iran's Army and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps will not lay down their arms at the first sight of US ground troops. 

Lowther said that Iranian military forces watched Afghanistan and Iraq for lessons on how to defeat the Americans. 

3. The Iranian Intelligence Ministry is among the most competent in the world. 

According to the writer, the ministry has successfully hunted down anti-Iran elements over the past thirty years. 

4. Lebanese resistance movement of Hezbollah can help Iran in a possible US war on Iran. 

The defense analyst stated that should the US military attack Iran, Hezbollah, with three decades of experience fighting the Israelis, is likely to launch a series of counter-attacks. 

5. Iran's cyber capabilities are impressive and growing. 

Lowther wrote that an attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure is likely to prompt a sustained cyber-attack unlike any we have seen. It will likely target critical data in the public and private sector and seek to wreak havoc, shut down systems, and destroy data. 

6. The US military deserves a rest from war after a decade of intense combat operations. 

Lowther reminded that how wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have taken their toll on American soldiers, their families, and the equipment they rely on. 

7. A "limited attack" on Iran will likely escalate into a wider war, making it difficult for the US military to rest and refit. 

The expert said even a focused strike against Iran's nuclear facilities will elicit a response well beyond "limited" US objectives. 

The author in the end once again urged the US government to weigh all options before resorting to military conflict against Iran. 


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